I have always been very interested in international relations and world history. I've been following Peter Zeihan for a while now. He is one of the few experts who can effectively apply theory and explain it comprehensively. This is probably because he has trained himself to be a generalist rather than aiming to become a specialist in one particular field.

Recently, I started reading his book, "The End of the World is Just the Beginning." Even after just the first chapter, you get a clear big picture. Long-term trends are relatively easier to predict compared to short and medium-term ones (if you use sufficiently macro tools), and reversing these trends is often very difficult (if not impossible).

The two most important tools are geopolitics and demographics.

The globalization we were familiar with until a few years ago is actually a man-made construct. It was based on the United States acting as the world police with its superior military power after World War II. The U.S. ensured safe trade routes between countries, preventing conflicts, and opened its market, provided its allies chose her side. This system continued after the Cold War ended in 1990s because the U.S. chose to bear the costs of maintaining international order. Ten years after the Cold War ended, the 9/11 terrorist attacks reinforced this decision. China's participation in global trade through the WTO also allowed everyone to enjoy cheaper products.

The party could have continued if not for the fact that about ten years ago, the U.S. felt threatened by strong competition, and around the same time, the world's population entered an irreversible decline. The decline in birth rates is directly related to urbanization. Regions with the fastest urbanization will also experience the quickest population decline. In this regard, the U.S. has more time to adapt compared to other major countries. China's population outlook is particularly bleak.

The U.S. will continue to invest in maintaining international trade framework but will deliberately exclude "non-allies." This means that deeply intertwined global supply chain will gradually deconstruct until the boundaries between two major trade blocs become clear. This trend will have very painful economic impacts on regions that are export-oriented and have weakening domestic demand due to population decline. Fortunately, the U.S. has Mexico, its almost complementary neighbor, making it the least painful among all during this uncomfortable transition.

Taiwan is a small country located at the center of geopolitical hotspots, and its population is rapidly aging. No matter what choices we make, we cannot go through the shocks of globalization deconstruction without pain. As an individual, it is necessary to prepare for flexible options of people (residency), money (financial assets), and property (real estate).