中國去掉黃色的部分才是真實的人口數,兩相比較似乎日本的情況沒有比較好,但是因為日本為此已經準備了將近一代人的時間,日本也將生產大規模地在海外本土化,中國則是對此幾乎沒有準備,而且海外生產也遭到抵制,所以未來十年中國將面臨非常黯淡的未來。
經濟的三大引擎: 出口、投資與內需。
出口因地緣政治與供應鏈脫鉤,已持續衰退了。
投資,房地產與基礎建設泡沫被戳破了,外資已連續淨流出。
內需,未來沒有人消費了。
除非世界局勢與政治制度大幅度改變,不然中國經濟越來越冷會依經濟學的規律實現。
Neighboring Countries of the Elderly
If you remove the yellow portion, the remaining population of China reflects the true number. When comparing the two, Japan's situation doesn't seem much better, but Japan has been preparing for this for almost a generation. Japan has also successfully localized large-scale production overseas, whereas China has made almost no preparations. Moreover, China's overseas production has faced resistance, so in the next ten years, China will face a very bleak future.
The three main engines of the economy: exports, investment, and domestic demand.
Exports have continued to decline due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain decoupling.
Investment, the bubbles in real estate and infrastructure have burst, and FDI has seen a net outflow for consecutive quarters.
As for domestic demand, there will be no one to consume in the future.
Unless there is a significant change in global circumstances and political systems, China's economy will continue to cool down, following the laws of economics.
Image source: https://zeihan.com/category/japan/
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