I just read David Y.S. Chiueh's book Forrest Gump Investing (available only in Traditional Chinese). It was a pleasant surprise to find that his investing philosophy - at least the strategy he recommends to the general public - is very similar to mine.
Here's a brief summary, where I've taken the liberty of incorporating some of my own strategy (It's not a legal advice, for information and entertainment purposes only):
1. Picking individual stocks is too hard; the majority of your portfolio should be in diversified ETFs
2. Timing market highs and lows is too hard; it's better to "stay fully invested" to avoid missing major rebounds and add to your positions within your risk tolerance during dips
3. Focus on U.S. stocks for long-term investing; for cyclical investing, consider Taiwan's 0050 ETF
4. Asset allocation
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The strategy is called the "Gump Strategy" because of its simplicity. It's simple but not easy, as very few people are willing to intentionally appear "stupid." However, I'd argue that Private Gump is a wise and noble person.
Alternatively, you can manually build your own basket of value stocks. For example, with $1M, you could buy 100 stocks, allocating $10K to each. However, you'll need a solid valuation system - a combination of mathematical formulas, economic cycles and business insight on the management. During high-valuation cycles, you might naturally end up with more cash as fewer undervalued stocks are available. This cash can then be used to buy bargains during major downturns.
That said, developing a robust valuation model requires expertise, and building a full position takes time. This approach is not in line with the Gump-style strategy but is more suitable for someone aiming to achieve above-average returns. Keep in mind that even average market returns already outperform 80%–90% of Wall Street experts.
I completely agree with Chiueh's assessment of the top three predators on Wall Street: Greed, Fear, and Impatience. A person can be too smart to apply a simple strategy, but they can only be wise by admitting their own "stupidity."
Forrest Gump turning point on U.S. Route 163 in Utah, Mar 30, 2023.
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