Forrest Gump Investing

I just read David Y.S. Chiueh's book Forrest Gump Investing (available only in Traditional Chinese). It was a pleasant surprise to find that his investing philosophy - at least the strategy he recommends to the general public - is very similar to mine.

Here's a brief summary, where I've taken the liberty of incorporating some of my own strategy (It's not a legal advice, for information and entertainment purposes only):

1. Picking individual stocks is too hard; the majority of your portfolio should be in diversified ETFs

  • I delegate stock-picking to BRK.B.
  • If you entrust your money to an expert, you must take responsibility for your choice by thoroughly understanding their investment philosophy.


2. Timing market highs and lows is too hard; it's better to "stay fully invested" to avoid missing major rebounds and add to your positions within your risk tolerance during dips

  • Long-term investments (20+ years): Invest in an S&P 500 ETF. Be prepared for a mental challenge, as a market crash with a 50% drop will test your resolve. 
  • Start adding to your position in small increments if the market drops 10%. Without the mental fortitude to endure such declines, you're likely to sell at the bottom and miss the recovery.


3. Focus on U.S. stocks for long-term investing; for cyclical investing, consider Taiwan's 0050 ETF

  • Seasonal cycles: Gradually buy in from October to December and exit by the end of March the following year.
  • Monthly economic indicators from Taiwan's NDC (National Development Council): 
  1. a. Start buying in 10 batches when the signal shows yellow-blue.
  2. b. Start selling in 3 batches when the signal turns yellow-red and continue until fully sold.


4. Asset allocation

  • Five years before retirement, increase defensive asset allocation. A balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds can reduce the impact of a market crash when you need to withdraw large sums.
  • You can refinance your home to up to 60% of its value and invest the proceeds.

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The strategy is called the "Gump Strategy" because of its simplicity. It's simple but not easy, as very few people are willing to intentionally appear "stupid." However, I'd argue that Private Gump is a wise and noble person.

Alternatively, you can manually build your own basket of value stocks. For example, with $1M, you could buy 100 stocks, allocating $10K to each. However, you'll need a solid valuation system - a combination of mathematical formulas, economic cycles and business insight on the management. During high-valuation cycles, you might naturally end up with more cash as fewer undervalued stocks are available. This cash can then be used to buy bargains during major downturns.

That said, developing a robust valuation model requires expertise, and building a full position takes time. This approach is not in line with the Gump-style strategy but is more suitable for someone aiming to achieve above-average returns. Keep in mind that even average market returns already outperform 80%–90% of Wall Street experts.

I completely agree with Chiueh's assessment of the top three predators on Wall Street: Greed, Fear, and Impatience. A person can be too smart to apply a simple strategy, but they can only be wise by admitting their own "stupidity."

Here’s the Reuters interview with Mr. Chieuh in 2014.


Forrest Gump turning point on U.S. Route 163 in Utah, Mar 30, 2023.

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iam@kevinhuang.tw