Organizing a grand 30-year reunion is a long-standing tradition at my alma mater, Chien Kuo High School. This year, I will reconnect with many old classmates. Each class already has its own LINE chat group, so everyone has started reaching out and catching up before the event. This process has been thought-provoking and reminded me of a speech.

In Warren Buffett's 1998 speech at Florida University, he asked MBA students which classmate they would bet on for future success. The smart bet, he explained, should be based on qualitative factors, not IQ or grades. You would bet on someone who is generous, responsible, and exhibits leadership.

After 30 years, many of my classmates haven’t changed much in temperament or character. Those who performed better academically seem to have followed a "predictable" life path: medical school, becoming a practicing physician, a busy schedule, and considerable income. Other classmates’ paths also align with expectations: engineering, technology careers, busy schedules, and sizable income. You could say that over 90% of them chose the paths society had already paved. From there, it’s just a matter of investing time and effort without needing to make difficult decisions or extensive analyses. When faced with personal challenges, such as marriage or family, they can turn to the "standard answers" provided by society.

However, investment as a path is vastly different. It’s broad and uncertain, unlike the precision of natural sciences. Most of the time, there are no discovered formulas or prearranged timetables to follow. The primary battleground lies in psychology and common sense at a large scale, and the greatest enemies are one’s emotions and ignorance. While approaching investment from a macro perspective might seem straightforward, translating it into market actions becomes highly variable due to human nature. In this intensely individualistic field, it often feels like walking alone on a narrow bridge—one side being self-doubt and the other arrogance. Aside from your own courage and wisdom, no one is responsible for your safety.

Investment is a humanities discipline, with its core rooted in unchanging human nature and the patterns of human civilization’s evolution.

Long-term investment in individual stocks is like choosing a person with good character. Human nature is inherently complex, making it impossible to predict a person’s future with complete accuracy. While luck plays a significant role, the key factors that determine success haven’t changed much over the centuries. Qualitative analysis remains a highly valuable tool for assessing whether someone will be happy decades down the road.

Long-term investment in the entire market, on the other hand, is more akin to choosing a career. Judging whether a career has a future and whether it suits your personality is much simpler than choosing a lifelong partner. Sustaining a marriage depends on navigating the ups and downs of the relationship, not just the excitement of exchanging vows on your wedding day.

The greatest risk in investing in individual stocks lies in not understanding the essence of the company, leading to potential tragedies of "choosing the wrong partner" or "falling out of love." Meanwhile, the biggest risk in investing in the entire market is envying others' careers. Growth is rarely smooth, which can lead to tragedies of "giving up halfway" or "constantly switching paths."

Investment is not suitable for those who lack a strong personal philosophy. For those who haven’t spent time building their philosophy, no matter how high their IQ is, it’s safer to stay on the pre-paved paths of society. The trade-off, however, is losing the opportunity to truly understand yourself.