Experience is History

Disputes often arise simply because two people with different experiences are speaking past each other.

Zelensky is smart—he worries about repeating the mistakes of the Yalta Agreement. However, today’s situation is not exactly the same as it was back then:

  1. At that time, Europe had no concern for China’s interests.
  2. The U.S. had already suffered heavy casualties and was growing weary of war.

Any agreement can be torn apart, but the real question is—how long can Ukraine survive without U.S. support?

As long as Zelensky understands the current U.S. administration’s desire to maintain dominance, and as long as Ukraine does not suffer substantive losses or compromise its independence, agreements can always be renegotiated based on new circumstances.

Looking back at history, Chiang Kai-shek once humiliated General Marshall and acted oblivious to the realities of the situation—this is exactly the same sentiment that Trump and Vance have today.

"I am a five-star general. China endured four years of hardship to give you the opportunity to defeat Germany, and yet now you come here lecturing me?"

A mix of resentment and heated rhetoric eventually pushed China into a passive position—sometimes forced to declare a ceasefire under pressure, sometimes unilaterally breaking agreements, but never truly in control.

Europe's stance has always been consistent: unless they feel directly threatened, they will not care about Ukraine’s survival. The Yugoslav Wars serve as a prime example. In reality, the only country genuinely willing to help Ukraine, with less concern for its own immediate interests, is the U.S.

For a weaker nation, binding its own interests tightly to those of the United States is actually a wise strategy.

Endlessly doubting the U.S.—what tangible benefit does that bring to Taiwan?

Another historical analogy, though slightly different, is the case of Hán’s Shangdang Commandery refusing to surrender to Qin and voluntarily defecting to Zhao, ultimately triggering the Battle of Changping—a deadly clash between two powerful forces.

Back then, the situation was far more severe than it is today—Qin had the world’s most formidable military power, leaving no room for negotiation.

A realist with ideals is far rarer and more valuable than an idealist without realism.


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